Eau Claire Leader-Telegram. November 2, 2023.
Editorial: Housing trends require new thinking
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the average American household is shrinking. That’s been clear for quite some time as birth rates have declined and younger generations postponed becoming parents.
There’s also the simple increase in one-person households. Those accounted for fewer than 17% of all households in Wisconsin in 1970. By the last census that figure was a bit higher than 30%.
Bear with us for a moment while we throw out some numbers. They’re important to understanding the trend. The U.S. Census Bureau put the average household at 3.11 people in 1970. Fast forward 50 years and that fell to 2.55 people. That’s a drop of 18.1%.
Most of that decline took place between 1970 and 1980. It’s still falling, but at a markedly slower rate. Wisconsin, though, saw both a steeper fall and is still declining at a faster rate than the rest of the country.
In 1970, Wisconsin’s average household size was 3.22 people. It was an agriculture-based state, so that’s not a surprise. Like the rest of the nation, the drop from 1970 to 1980 was precipitous, but moderated somewhat between 1980-1990.
Unlike the rest of the United States, though, Wisconsin’s decline hasn’t hit the brakes sharply. By 2020 the average household size had fallen to 2.36 people. That’s a drop of 26% in 50 years and the state went from having an average household 3.5% bigger than the national average to one 7.4% smaller.
As of this decade, Wisconsin ranked 45th nationally. It had the fourth-largest percentage decline form 2000-2020. The Wisconsin Policy Forum said the trend is expected to continue, and it’s going to have important ramifications for housing in the state.
Single-person households do two things. With fewer people in the household, you need more places to live to house everyone. If the rate of housing development isn’t as fast as the rise in single-person households, demand outpaces supply and prices go up.
This isn’t the only factor in the sharp rise in housing costs in Wisconsin over the past decade, but it plays a role. Here’s how the WPF put it:
“Now, the demand for small housing units for one or two people is greater. Though not necessarily as significant as factors such as rising mortgage interest rates or the slowdown in housing construction during and after the Great Recession, this ‘housing mismatch’ may be contributing to rising housing costs. In addition, one-bedroom units tend to be more expensive on a per-person basis than units for multiple people, since all units must have a bathroom and kitchen.”
Updated numbers will be available next year, but there’s enough here for policymakers to begin looking at some options. Current trends argue against widespread construction of new homes or apartments that can house more than a few people. But, since those are more efficient to build, construction companies and developers still have strong economic reasons to focus on those areas.
The question is whether those in position to change incentives for developers will pay attention and shift their focus. It’s not the most intuitive option for elected officials. There’s considerably more hoopla around being able to announce the construction of a new development in which the homes will average $800,000 apiece and be able to house a family of six comfortably than there is a development that has smaller homes and smaller price tags for buyers.
The WPF report underscores the reality that solving Wisconsin’s housing crunch will require people to change how they think about housing, to unlearn lessons taught in recent decades. We’re going to need new approaches, not more of the same.
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The Journal Times. November 5, 2023.
Editorial: A welcome bright spot in dreary news cycle
The news is often dominated by stories of violence — from the recent events in Israel and Gaza to the mass murders in Maine.
We’re always on the lookout for some good news to change that pace, so we were cheered recently when we came across a story that said young driver fatality rates have fallen sharply in the past two decades.
That is good news, indeed.
To be sure, young drivers are still the riskiest group on the road since they are inexperienced.
But, according to the report by the Governors Highway Safety Association, a nonprofit group of state highway safety offices, fatal crashes involving young drivers — ages 16-20 — fell by 38% between 2002-21.
Even more spectacularly, the deaths of young drivers dropped by about 45%, the report said. That’s an arrow that’s pointing in the right direction.
Consider, too, that during the same 20-year time period, the number of fatal crashes for drivers 21 and older rose by 8%. Road deaths rose by 11%.
The report conceded that some of the statistical improvement for young drivers came because young people are driving less than they were 20 years ago.
But the association report says at lot of the credit is due to the implementation in many states of graduated driving license laws.
Those laws ease young drivers onto the road in steps by issuing probationary licenses that ban late-night driving at the outset, except for school or work, limiting the number of passengers in the teen’s car or requiring an adult to be in the car.
Wisconsin was one of the first states to pass graduated driving license restrictions in 2000.
The positive impacts were immediate for 16-year-old drivers.
During the first three years with graduated drivers license laws here, 16-year-old drivers were 15% less likely to be involved in a traffic crash of any type and 18% less likely to be in a fatal crash.
Graduated drivers license laws have been effective here in Wisconsin and across the country and saved lives and prevented injuries of people young and old.
That’s a record to build on and a bright spot in an often dreary news cycle.
