Thanksgiving will cost more this year. Here’s why

By Shereen Siewert

From avian flu outbreaks to supply chain disruptions and overall inflation, there’s no surprise that this year’s Thanksgiving dinner will cost more than you’re used to.

But just how much more may shock you.

This week, the average retail price for a frozen turkey is $1.99 a pound, according to the agriculture department’s weekly turkey report. That is up 73 percent from 2021. And some in the poultry industry predict consumers will pay twice as much for a turkey compared to last year, by the time the holiday rolls around.

Buying a breast rather than the entire bird is an option, but the retail price for turkey breast has soared 112% in the past year to a record $6.70 per pound, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Previously, the record for turkey breast was $5.88 per pound, recorded during the 2015 avian flu outbreak.

More than 46 million birds across 40 states have been affected by this year’s flu outbreak, but the virus poses little threat to humans, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says. The agency has reported only one case of the virus in a human this year.

Aside from the turkey just about all the traditional Thanksgiving staples could be more expensive this year, as inflation for groceries hasn’t been this high since the 1970s, according to CNBC. Leading the way: butter and margarine, where prices jumped 32% in September versus a year ago.

That number is the most among all grocery categories, according to consumer price index data issued this month.

Specifically, margarine prices popped by 44% and butter rose nearly 27% — substantially more than the 13% annual increase for the overarching “food at home” category, according to the CPI, a key inflation measure.

What else is higher? Frozen vegetables are more than 16% higher than last year, while flour is up more than 20%, canned fruits are up more than 18% and frozen bakery products like pumpkin pie rose 20%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As far as potatoes go, the November American Farm Bureau report will have the breakdown, but all indicators suggest consumers will pay much more this year for their side of mashed. Overall, the Farm Bureau’s 2021 survey pegged the average cost of last year’s classic Thanksgiving feast for 10 at $53.31, a 14% rise over the year before. But the most recent inflation figures are prompting financial experts to push this year’s estimate to about $60.